Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-30 29.910335 33.380519 37.384287 42.419936 48.696992 56.427547 66.949303
2025-04-06 24.522083 28.704868 33.961960 41.295005 51.706781 66.804901 92.389050
2025-04-13 22.255282 27.098711 33.648445 43.699057 59.980876 88.465503 153.890840
2025-04-20 19.837484 24.763039 31.747736 43.193323 63.655014 105.600314 238.398003
2025-04-27 18.234589 23.245075 30.646940 43.516211 68.819195 130.407573 438.562825
2025-05-04 17.020430 22.084013 29.831185 44.031838 74.599966 164.143479 1119.019647
2025-05-11 15.960053 21.001321 28.935911 44.137649 79.602542 204.901071 8484.296827
2025-05-18 14.943785 19.865804 27.775623 43.444853 82.414542 245.410271 NaN
2025-05-25 14.214138 19.099250 27.124880 43.611548 87.715125 317.725776 NaN
2025-06-01 13.510261 18.305279 26.320575 43.273883 91.499080 404.000721 NaN
2025-06-08 12.860972 17.544277 25.485098 42.696780 94.351274 512.013174 NaN
2025-06-15 12.291405 16.870086 24.734322 42.168546 97.239784 669.214902 NaN
2025-06-22 11.790688 16.283959 24.104323 41.853616 101.115630 960.464743 NaN
2025-06-29 11.239166 15.578010 23.187655 40.698383 101.157662 1225.732131 NaN
2025-07-06 11.115938 15.588237 23.631799 43.017296 118.384575 7232.245059 NaN
2025-07-13 10.711625 15.086451 23.029100 42.513225 122.002585 113137.870924 NaN
2025-07-20 10.418959 14.760985 22.746267 42.822617 130.646224 NaN NaN
2025-07-27 10.165633 14.488562 22.544123 43.322311 141.440159 NaN NaN
2025-08-03 9.896365 14.171788 22.222835 43.424301 150.276077 NaN NaN
2025-08-10 9.582473 13.758776 21.669730 42.749544 153.152818 NaN NaN
2025-08-17 9.356631 13.493394 21.406326 42.911624 163.318219 NaN NaN
2025-08-24 9.107868 13.174213 21.005064 42.582837 169.412466 NaN NaN
2025-08-31 8.857349 12.840834 20.551197 42.020909 173.117731 NaN NaN